The road ahead does not appear lush green – Weekly analysis 11.01.2020

The road ahead does not appear lush green

With the NIFTY 50 hitting an all-time high of 12,311.20 one tends to become overly optimistic about the near future. However, the charts do not share the optimism that is expressed by news headlines or financial gossips. A Doji has been formed at a level that can be confidently said to be the resistance zone.

If a gap down opening occurs on Monday we might even be seeing the formation of an evening star or abandoned baby which will be formed at pivot high. Additionally, one can see the bearish divergence that has been formed on the RSI (14 days) and MACD line and also a bearish crossover was confirmed a few days ago.
   However, if NIFTY 50 opens gap up and sustain at levels above 12,300 then the following view shall be invalidated.


Disclaimer: We have provided this information to traders and investors for educational purposes only. It is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEBI policy. Before making any investment or trading decision it is advised to consult with your financial advisor.


Happy trading!  Satyarth Grover.

Nifty Market Analysis – 10.01.2019

Nifty Market Analysis – 10.01.2019

“The market is a pendulum that swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” – Jason Zweig

This quote makes complete sense to traders who participated in the last four trading sessions.

With the NIFTY 50 swinging wildly within a range of about 300 points it has settled at 12,215.40 on options expiry day, today. Many gaps (or windows) have been formed which are sure to look out for and calibrate zones of support and resistance accordingly, as gaps act as support and resistance zones. 

In light of this given below is an analysis of Hindustan Unilever Limited. The current market price is 1935.05 and a bullish divergence can be observed on RSI.

The 14 periods RSI has made higher highs and higher lows while the stock had made lower lows and lower highs. Interestingly, the stock is also hovering around its support zone.

One can accumulate this quality stock and add a gem to his portfolio. Stop-loss – 1900. Target – 2090

Happy Trading

Satyarth Grover

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No Intraday Trading? Higher Margins?

No Intraday Trading? Higher Margins?

In the course of the most recent a year, SEBI has been getting numerous extra rules and regulations that defend retail customers from any potential financial fraud at a brokerage firm. In this procedure, numerous ambiguities in prior handouts are additionally being gotten out. While the sum total of what these have been very hard on the brokerage business in the short term, I think it is useful for the biological system over the long haul.

The latest round from SEBI was on margin necessity when purchasing or selling stocks.

NSE and BSE have both quite recently put out rules and explanations on margin assortment and revealing with regards to this SEBI circular.

Fundamentally, the explanation says that the whole starting margin — which is SPAN+Exposure for F&O, and VAR+ELM for value, must be gathered forthright before taking a trade, regardless of whether it is an intraday trade (MIS, BO, and CO). These kinds of intraday items were being offered with extra margin by the whole broking industry up to this point. This should quit going ahead.

What changes?

This implies, for a stock like Reliance, you would require VAR+ELM margin (12.5%) to take a trade. Henceforth the greatest intraday margin that can be given by any representative is this prerequisite of 12.5% or multiple times.

Going ahead, for all intraday item types — MIS, BO, CO Trades, the margin will be similar which is the VAR+ELM margin. Nothing changes for CNC or equity delivery trades that will require full funds in the trading account before putting in a purchase request or having protections in your Demat account before submitting a sell request.

Likewise, to trade 1 parcel of NIFTY prospects, you would require the whole SPAN+Exposure margin = 11.5% = Rs 1.04 Lakhs to take a trade. Furthermore, similar to I referenced before, the margin necessity will continue as before regardless of whether you utilized intraday item types like MIS/BO/CO. Check our margin number cruncher to see the SPAN +Exposure margin which we additionally call as NRML margin or Initial Margin.

While the minimum VAR+ELM requirement for stocks is new, the additional intraday leverage that all brokerage firms offered for F&O was due to the ambiguity on margin reporting which existed. Trades charge a penalty if there is no minimum SPAN+Exposure present in a client account at the end of the trading day when margins are reported. Since all reporting was done on an end-of-day basis, if brokers did offer higher intraday leverages, it wasn’t reported as long as positions were closed. Thus, there was no penalty and the client who would switch the brokerage firm just based on leverage was happy too. With this clarification, it is now black and white. No broker will be able to offer any additional intraday leverage on F&O. 

Who and how does it affect?\

Dealers who needed that extra margin for intraday are the ones who will be influenced the most however decidedly or adversely is far from being obviously true.

While indeed, every intraday trader is interested in higher-margin to acquire more. Higher the margin, higher the possibility of frenzy when Trades conflict with you, and higher the chances of losing.

What next?

In view of this explanation from the exchanges, we will alter the leverages on all our intraday items. MIS/BO/CO for value will require the VAR+ELM edge and MIS/BO/CO for F&O will require the SPAN+Exposure (NRML) edge.

A safe, secure and sound opportunity.

A safe, secure and sound opportunity.

With the NIFTY 50 closing at 12,226.65 on Friday, 3rd January one can conveniently say that a structural bull run in underway. However, the P/E ratio (Price to Earnings ratio) stands at 28.44 which is certainly no good news and an investor would have a reason to worry.    In this article of Sunday analysis we have presented below a stock – LIC Housing Finance which seems a good pick not only from technical outlook but is also a value buy.   

The P/E ratio stands at a lucrative figure of 8.27 and the company has recorded a growth in EPS of 15.75% p.a. from 2012-2019. The stock has come down to a multi-year support level and in September – October 2019 formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern to reverse its a downtrend.

A rising trend line has emerged which can be seen on the chart presented alongside. Longs can be initiated with a definitive stop loss of 430 and a target of 469. The current market price stands at 439.4. The risk-reward ratio is approximately 1:3.

Disclaimer: We have provided this information to traders and investors for educational purposes only. It is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEBI policy. Before making any investment or trading decision it is advised to consult with your financial advisor.

To learn about the market; How to invest or trade in the stock market? click here.


Happy trading!  
Satyarth Grover.

Add this stock to be part of the current bull run

Add this stock to be part of the current bull run

With NIFTY 50 settling down at 12,282.2 and the Sensex at 41,626.64 it seems like January 2020 will belong to the bulls. Many people might think that they are late for the party and would like to extract some nectar out of this market at this stage.   In light of this, presented below is the analysis of Tech Mahindra. With a closing price of 766.05 on 2nd January, an upward sloping channel can be seen on daily charts. Longs can be initiated with a stop loss of 760 and an upside target of 784. The risk-reward ratio would be 1:3.  
Disclaimer: We have provided this information to traders and investors for educational purposes only. It is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEBI policy. Before making any investment or trading decision it is advised to consult with your financial advisor.
Happy trading!
Satyarth Grover

Nifty Daily Analysis 1.1.2020

Nifty Daily Analysis 1.1.2020

With the Nifty settling down at 12,182.5, the structural bull run is likely to occur in the first quarter of this year 2020. The index seems overvalued by many market participants and quick pick seems a slightly tough task.   In light of this, we can check up this stock of the pharmaceutical sector – Aurobindo Pharma. On 1st January it closed at 458.1 and seems to be testing its trend line. It has reversed its long term downtrend with conviction in November 2019 and a strong support zone is established at 425-430. Longs can be initiated with a target price of 470 and a definitive stop loss of 454. The risk-reward ratio of this trade is approximately 1:3  

Disclaimer: We have provided this information to Traders and investors for education purposes only. It is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of SEBI policy. Before making any investment or trading decision is it advised to consult your financial advisor.

Happy Trading!

Satyarth Grover.

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